TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-time trader conviction backed by actual capital at risk. While Wall Street analysts publish periodic earnings estimates and 12-month targets, this market aggregates live expectations from hundreds of traders making daily decisions. Analyst forecasts tend to be stickier and updated less frequently, whereas prediction markets adjust rapidly to breaking news, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts. This makes the odds here a dynamic complement to consensus estimates.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into implied probabilities for each outcome band. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different closing price ranges, and the cost of each share reflects the collective belief in that outcome. As more capital flows into a particular price band, its odds rise and others fall. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market stays responsive to new information and trader sentiment right up until resolution.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once the final closing price for Amazon stock on the last trading day of that week is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verifying AMZN's official closing price against credible public financial data. Whichever price band contains the actual close will be marked correct, and traders holding shares in that outcome receive their payout. All other positions expire worthless.
Amazon earnings announcements, guidance revisions, or major product launches can trigger sharp repricing in this market. Broader tech sector momentum, changes in interest rate expectations, and macroeconomic data releases also influence large-cap stock predictions. Regulatory news affecting cloud computing or e-commerce, competitive pressures, or insider trading disclosures may shift trader conviction. Additionally, short-term technical factors like options expiration, index rebalancing, or analyst upgrades/downgrades in the days leading up to resolution can create volatility in the odds.