TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks public sentiment in Alberta regarding the province's continued status as part of Canada through a referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026. Participants assess the likelihood of a strong majority supporting the 'Remain' option. The outcome depends on the final vote tally reported by Elections Alberta.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the percentage of valid votes cast for the 'Remain' option in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum. Each market has a different threshold, ranging from 60% to 85%, required for a 'Yes' resolution. Valid votes include only those cast for either option on Question 10, with blank and rejected ballots excluded. The results must come from Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum report; preliminary results do not count. If official final results are not released before the market expiration, the contract resolves to the last fair price determined by the Exchange. All percentages are rounded according to Elections Alberta’s reported conventions.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the Alberta referendum. While some analysts predict a clear outcome, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders, potentially revealing nuances not captured in traditional polling or expert opinions. It’s important to note that prediction markets represent a probabilistic view, showing the likelihood of different outcomes as perceived by those with skin in the game. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different vote share outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the final result. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Jan 19, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Alberta referendum are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share for the 'Remain' option will be the determining factor. The market will settle to 100 if the 'Remain' vote share exceeds the threshold represented by the highest available contract, and to 0 if it falls below the threshold of the lowest available contract. All other outcomes will settle proportionally to the final vote share percentage.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major shifts in public opinion, as indicated by new polling data, would likely influence trading activity. Unexpected endorsements or statements from key political figures could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any significant economic or political developments within Alberta, or Canada more broadly, could impact traders’ assessments of the likely outcome. Any news related to voter turnout or potential challenges to the referendum process would also be closely watched and could move this market.
