TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 45%
- Kalshi
At least 45% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 1, 11:10 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks how much support Mary Peltola garners in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary. It reflects the proportion of valid votes she receives compared to all voters participating. Outcomes depend on official, certified results after any possible recounts.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of valid votes Mary Peltola receives in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary, calculated as (votes for Peltola ÷ total valid votes) × 100. Each market has a specific threshold (30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, or 55%)—if her certified vote percentage meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Write-in votes are included if certified, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Resolution relies solely on official results; preliminary counts, cancellations, postponements beyond the market expiration, or absence of certified results by expiration all result in a No outcome. If a recount alters the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified figure determines the result. For elections involving multiple rounds (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders continuously set prices based on their expectations for the candidate’s vote percentage. The current top outcome reflects the most probable result as assessed by market participants, with volume of $67,195 indicating overall interest. Prices adjust instantly to new information, news, and polling updates, capturing a collective forecast of the election’s probable outcome.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentages from official election results will determine the settled price, reflecting the actual performance of each candidate in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary race.
Key debates, endorsements, polling releases, and any major news about candidates can shift this market. Strong debate performances, controversies, or changes in voter registration can quickly alter trader sentiment. As the primary approaches, updated polls and campaign momentum will be the primary drivers of price movements, making this market sensitive to real-time political developments.
