TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 25%
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At least 25% - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 1, 11:09 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks the vote share Dan S. Sullivan receives in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary election. It reflects how much support Sullivan garners from voters compared to all valid ballots cast. The outcome depends on official, certified results after any recounts or adjustments.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of votes Dan S. Sullivan receives in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary, calculated as (votes for Sullivan ÷ total valid votes) × 100. The percentage must fall within specific thresholds (25%–100%, 30%–100%, etc.) for the market to settle as Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Certification requires official, final results—preliminary tallies, write-in counts only if certified, and excluded invalid or spoiled ballots do not factor in. If the election is canceled, postponed past the market's expiration, or no certified results exist by then, all markets resolve to No. Recounts that alter the certified percentage before expiration use the updated figure. Multiple voting rounds (e.g., ranked-choice) default to the first round unless otherwise specified. Thresholds vary per market, each defining a distinct vote-share range for a Yes outcome.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and offering, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectations of participants. The market’s price fluctuations are driven by new information, such as candidate performance or shifts in voter sentiment, and are updated constantly to reflect the latest collective wisdom of the trading community.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be determined by official election results, and the market will close based on those authoritative figures, bringing closure to the trading activity and settling all positions accordingly.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including debates, endorsements, polling updates, and any major news about the candidates. Economic developments, public scandals, or changes in voter registration can also influence trader sentiment. As the primary approaches, any event that affects voter preferences or campaign momentum is likely to cause noticeable price movements in this market.
