TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 5%
- Kalshi
At least 5% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 1, 11:12 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Bernadette M. Wilson in the Alaska gubernatorial primary election, focusing specifically on the percentage of votes she receives. The outcome depends on whether her vote share meets or exceeds various thresholds, reflecting her level of support among voters in that primary contest.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette M. Wilson in the Alaska gubernatorial primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market has a specific minimum threshold (ranging from 5% to 23%) that, if met or exceeded by her vote percentage, results in a 'Yes' outcome. Resolution relies exclusively on official, certified results—preliminary figures, write-in votes (if certified), and any post-certification recount adjustments are considered. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator in the percentage calculation. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration date, or no certified results are available by that deadline, all markets resolve to 'No'. For elections involving multiple voting rounds (such as ranked-choice voting), the percentage is determined based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote count from the official Alaska gubernatorial primary results will determine the winning percentage range, closing this market based on publicly recorded data from the state election authority.
Several key developments could shift odds in this market before Aug 18, 2027. Strong debate performances, endorsements from influential figures or groups, and major fundraising announcements often reshape trader sentiment quickly. Contenders who exceed expectations in visibility or organization may see their probabilities rise, while controversies or missteps can have the opposite effect. Additionally, shifts in voter registration demographics or late-deciding blocs may influence expectations. As the primary approaches, any surge in local media coverage or grassroots activity typically produces noticeable adjustments in trading activity, reflecting updated assessments of each candidate’s viability.
