TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 4, 10:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks what share of votes Jared Hudson will capture in the opening round of Alabama's 2026 Republican Senate primary. On Kalshi, the probability that Hudson receives between 25% and 30% of the popular vote stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported for the first round of the 2026 Alabama Republican U.S. Senate primary. Watch for the primary election results, expected by May 19, 2027, which will establish Hudson's final vote share and settle the market.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi incorporate real-money incentives that often lead traders to price outcomes differently than traditional polls. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate forward-looking expectations from participants with financial stakes in accuracy. For the Alabama Republican primary, market prices reflect not only current polling data but also trader assessments of campaign momentum, candidate viability, and late-breaking developments. Comparing market odds to available polling can reveal whether traders expect Hudson's support to shift between now and the primary election.
The market resolves on May 19, 2027, following the conclusion of the 2026 Alabama Republican U.S. Senate primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count and certified results for Jared Hudson's share of the popular vote in the first round of the primary. The outcome will be confirmed once election authorities release final tallies and any recounts or disputes are resolved. Traders should monitor official Alabama election sources and candidate campaign announcements as the primary date approaches.
Several factors could shift market odds for Hudson's vote share before the primary. Major endorsements from prominent Alabama Republicans or national figures could boost or diminish his support. Campaign spending, debate performances, and media coverage will influence voter perception. Candidate entry or exit announcements by other primary contenders could reshape the competitive landscape and redirect votes. Polling releases showing changes in Hudson's standing will likely trigger immediate market repricing. Local and national political developments, scandals, or economic news could also affect voter priorities and candidate viability through the election date.