TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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AL-02 House Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the AL-02 House election?

Total volume:
$609,215
Volume 24h:
$13,625
78%
Liquidity:
$138,801
12%
Open interest:
$335,808
4%

Republican party

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Republican win the House race for AL-02?

70%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 70¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 70% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% High Projected APY: 510% 72 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
70%
2%
Yes 70¢No 31¢
1¢
N/A
$207,705
6%
48%
$168,578
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
70%
Yes 70¢No 31¢
1¢
$66,706
$77,079
0.35%
67%
N/A
1w 3d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
69.9%
Yes 70¢No 31¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
31%
1%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
N/A
$222,441
0.92%
74%
$167,230
2mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
31%
2%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$72,095
$101,991
0.34%
80%
N/A
1w 3d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
30.8%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the US House of Representatives election for Alabama’s 2nd congressional district in 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of a Republican victory is 71.0%, while a Democratic win is estimated at 31.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution determined by the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). Keep an eye on the primary election results scheduled for early 2026, as these will significantly shape the race and provide insight into each candidate’s viability.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the AL-02 House seat, with a fallback to official FEC results for clarity.Primary resolution logic: Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the party of the candidate officially declared the winner of the AL-02 House seat.
  • If a candidate lacks a clear party affiliation, resolution will be based on their stated intent to caucus with a party.
  • Official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) are the final authority in case of ambiguity.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, the market will resolve based on any subsequent official determination of the winner by the US House of Representatives or other governing body as reported by the FEC.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws after markets are active, the market will resolve based on the remaining candidates and the official election results.
Timing: The market will resolve after the official results of the 2026 US House of Representatives election for Alabama's 2nd congressional district are certified and reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC), expected in late 2026/early 2027.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for Alabama's 2nd district for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when the elected representative takes office, with potential for accelerated determination following a consensus projection by major media organizations.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the outcome of the AL-02 House election by aggregating trading volume from multiple prediction markets. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms exceeds $609,215, with $13,625 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of the probability of different candidates winning, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. Polymarket currently favors Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? at 69.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Republican win the House race for AL-02? at 70.0%.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This can lead to divergences, especially as the election nears and more information becomes available. Prediction markets have historically been more accurate than polls in forecasting election results, though both have their limitations. The current implied probability in this market is shaped by real-money trading, offering a unique signal compared to surveys.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity and the timing of trades can also contribute to discrepancies. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information or varying risk appetites among traders on each platform can lead to distinct probabilities being reflected in the market prices. These differences represent valuable information for those analyzing the AL-02 House election.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official vote count certified by the relevant election authorities for the AL-02 House election. The platform will verify the winning candidate against these official results. Traders holding winning positions will be able to claim their payouts following the resolution process.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected developments in the candidates' campaigns could all shift probabilities. Polling data releases, especially those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, would likely cause movement. Debates and public appearances by the candidates are also potential catalysts. Any news related to voter turnout or potential controversies surrounding the election could also influence trading activity and the overall price of this market.