TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 9, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on June 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on June 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street analysts typically issue longer-term ratings and price targets, prediction markets focus on a specific binary outcome by Jun 9, 2026. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket to consensus analyst sentiment can reveal whether the crowd is more optimistic or pessimistic than institutional research. This gap sometimes signals overlooked catalysts or market inefficiencies ahead of the resolution date.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing either an up or down close for ABNB on June 9. Each outcome trades at a price between $0 and $1, with the implied probability derived from the current market price. Higher prices reflect stronger trader conviction in that outcome. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how easily you can enter or exit positions, and spreads between bid and ask prices reflect market tightness around the event.
The market resolves at Jun 9, 2026. Resolution is determined by Airbnb's closing stock price on that date relative to its opening price. The specific criteria—whether the comparison uses official exchange data, adjusted or unadjusted prices, or other factors—are set by the market creator and documented in the full market rules. Traders should review those terms before committing capital to ensure they understand exactly what triggers a win or loss.
Key catalysts include Airbnb earnings announcements, booking trends, regulatory developments affecting short-term rentals, and broader travel demand signals. Macroeconomic data—inflation reports, interest rate decisions, or consumer spending figures—can shift sentiment on discretionary travel stocks. Competitor news, management commentary, or changes to Airbnb's platform policies may also influence near-term momentum. Geopolitical events or seasonal travel patterns around early June could affect user activity and revenue expectations, moving traders' conviction on the up or down outcome.