TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 5, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on June 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on June 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street analysts issue 12-month forecasts with specific price ranges, this market isolates a single-day directional move, making direct comparison difficult. However, if consensus analyst sentiment is bullish on Airbnb's medium-term outlook, you might expect upside odds to trade higher here. Conversely, bearish analyst notes or downgrade cycles could suppress up-side probability, though short-term volatility can override longer-term views.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced as a binary contract where traders buy shares representing either an up-close or down-close outcome for ABNB on June 5. Share prices range from $0 to $1, with the sum of both outcomes equaling $1. The current odds reflect the live trading price of each outcome. Liquidity, recent price action in ABNB stock, and upcoming catalysts all influence how shares are bid and offered. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before market close on Jun 5, 2026.
The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after the close of regular trading in ABNB stock. The outcome is determined by comparing Airbnb's closing price on June 5 to its opening price that same day. A higher close results in an up resolution, while a lower or unchanged close results in down. This single-day directional bet isolates intraday and overnight volatility, making it distinct from longer-term price forecasts. Resolution occurs automatically once official closing data is confirmed.
Key catalysts include Airbnb earnings releases, guidance revisions, or analyst upgrades or downgrades issued before June 5. Broader market moves—such as Fed policy shifts, travel-sector sentiment, or macroeconomic data—can also drive ABNB directionally. Company-specific news like regulatory changes, partnership announcements, or executive commentary may shift trader conviction. Seasonal travel demand signals and competitor performance can influence short-term momentum. Finally, options expiration or index rebalancing activity on or near June 5 may create technical pressure. Monitoring financial news and ABNB's social media sentiment helps track real-time probability shifts.