TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Up or Down - Daily
limitless

Will the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) be up on July 13, 2026?

Volume:
$4,349

Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Up or Down - Daily

 - Limitless

Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Up or Down - Daily - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 4:00 PM EST

limitless

Limitless

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Up or Down - Daily

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
17.9¢
N/A
$4,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for Aerospace & Defense ETF (Pyth ITA/USD) on July 13, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for Aerospace & Defense ETF (Pyth ITA/USD) on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The price for Aerospace & Defense ETF (Pyth ITA/USD) captured on July 10, 2026 was $239.05002. Resolution source: Pyth ITA/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's price with the previous Friday's price, unless that Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's price, or the next most recent trading day. If Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 13, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the price for that trading day refers to the Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price published during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective price for that day. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which ITA is listed will be used to determine the price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting ITA during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for Aerospace & Defense ETF (Pyth ITA/USD) on July 13, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for Aerospace & Defense ETF (Pyth ITA/USD) on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The price for Aerospace & Defense ETF (Pyth ITA/USD) captured on July 10, 2026 was $239.05002. Resolution source: Pyth ITA/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's price with the previous Friday's price, unless that Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's price, or the next most recent trading day. If Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 13, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the price for that trading day refers to the Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price published during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective price for that day. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which ITA is listed will be used to determine the price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting ITA during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on this market reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from consensus analyst price targets or sector ratings. While equity analysts typically issue longer-term ratings and earnings forecasts, traders here are pricing daily directional movement—a much shorter time horizon. Prediction markets tend to incorporate breaking news, earnings surprises, and geopolitical events faster than formal analyst updates. Comparing the implied probability of an up day against analyst sentiment on aerospace stocks can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution that traditional research may not yet reflect.

On Limitless, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each outcome. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome share reflects the collective probability estimate: a share trading at 0.65 implies a 65% chance of that outcome occurring. Traders profit by buying underpriced outcomes and selling overpriced ones, which naturally drives prices toward fair value. Real-time liquidity and trading volume determine how quickly prices adjust to new information.

This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, after the close of the trading day in question. The outcome is determined by whether ITA closes higher or lower than its opening price on that date. Once the market close is verified against credible public financial data sources, the winning outcome is confirmed and traders' positions are settled accordingly. Early resolution is not possible; the market remains open for trading until the end-of-day price is finalized.

Major catalysts include defense spending announcements, geopolitical tensions, earnings reports from large aerospace holdings like Boeing or Lockheed Martin, and broader equity market movements. Federal Reserve policy shifts and interest-rate expectations also influence the sector, since aerospace companies are capital-intensive and sensitive to borrowing costs. Supply-chain disruptions, military contract awards, and macroeconomic data releases can trigger sharp intraday swings. Traders monitor pre-market futures, overnight international news, and sector-specific headlines to adjust their positions before the opening bell and throughout the trading session.