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ADP employment change in Jun 2026?
kalshi

ADP employment change in Jun 2026?

Volume:
$6,603

Above 50000

 - Kalshi

Above 50000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 50000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,371
N/A
N/A
$1,726
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 75000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,168
N/A
N/A
$679
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 25000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$641
N/A
N/A
$639
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$276
N/A
N/A
$272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -25000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,671
N/A
N/A
$1,040
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 125000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
$405
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether private sector employment growth in June 2026 will exceed 125,000 jobs according to ADP's employment survey. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 87.5%. The resolution will be determined by the official ADP Employment Change report for June 2026. Watch for the ADP data release scheduled around July 1, 2026, which will settle this market.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the ADP Employment Change figure released for June 2026. Each market outcome specifies a threshold value in jobs added or lost. The market resolves to Yes if the reported ADP Employment Change exceeds the specified threshold. Thresholds range from above -25,000 jobs to above 125,000 jobs, allowing traders to bet on various levels of employment growth or contraction during the month.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, shortly after the official ADP employment change figure for June 2026 is released. Resolution is determined by the actual ADP National Employment Report published by Automatic Data Processing, Inc., which measures net monthly change in private-sector employment. This widely-watched labor market indicator is released monthly and serves as a leading signal ahead of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll report. The reported figure—whether positive, negative, or flat—determines which outcome contract holders receive payment.

Key catalysts include monthly employment reports released between now and June 2026, Federal Reserve policy decisions and rate guidance, inflation data, GDP growth revisions, and corporate earnings calls signaling hiring or layoff plans. Geopolitical shocks, recession indicators, and shifts in consumer spending could reshape labor demand expectations. Real-time job postings, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rate trends will influence trader positioning. Additionally, forward guidance from major employers and sector-specific employment surveys will provide clues about June 2026 hiring momentum, causing price movements on Kalshi as new information emerges.