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Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
polymarket

Will Abu Musa Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?

Jul 20, 2026, 9:15 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$99,673
Volume 24h:
$281
145%
Liquidity:
$19,014
64%
Open interest:
$492N/A

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Time left: 08d:06h:23m

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 2.6¢ buys you 3,846 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $3,846 | Net Profit: $3,746 Multiplier: 38.46x | ROI: 3,746% APY not meaningful 8 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

Trade
1%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.8¢
2.4¢
$19,014
$1,294
4%
7%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Abu Musa Island control market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for this geopolitical event. Traders monitor the probability that Abu Musa Island will no longer be under Iranian control by the resolution date. The interface shows current market pricing, 24-hour volume of $48, and cumulative trading activity. This dashboard helps participants track how market sentiment evolves as new developments emerge regarding the island's status and regional tensions.

Prediction market odds reflect real-time aggregated trader expectations, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts due to different information sets and incentive structures. While analysts may rely on geopolitical models and historical precedent, this market prices in live sentiment from participants with financial stakes in the outcome. Comparing the current odds to published expert assessments can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk or where consensus breaks down. Such gaps sometimes signal emerging consensus or contrarian positioning.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market at any moment. As traders adjust their positions based on news and analysis, the odds shift in real time. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices move and how tight the bid-ask spread remains.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Abu Musa Island remains under Iranian control through that date or transitions to different control. Participants should monitor official statements, international news sources, and diplomatic developments as the deadline approaches. The final determination will be based on widely documented, authoritative evidence of the island's status.

Key catalysts include military developments in the Persian Gulf, diplomatic negotiations between Iran and regional or international actors, and statements from governments claiming or disputing control of the island. Escalations in regional tensions, sanctions announcements, or peace agreements could shift trader sentiment sharply. Media reports on Iranian military presence or withdrawal, international court rulings, or UN statements may also trigger repricing. Traders watch geopolitical risk indices and energy markets for indirect signals about regional stability.