TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Conservative
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Vol.
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Resolved Jun 19, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 18, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which party will win the Aberdeen South by-election scheduled for 2026. On Kalshi, the SNP is priced at 71.0% to secure the seat, while the Conservative Party stands at 28.0%. The market resolves according to the official result certified by the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom. Watch for campaign momentum and local polling data as the 2026 by-election date approaches to gauge shifts in voter sentiment across the constituency.
Kalshi
The winner is determined by which party receives the most votes in the by-election. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until the re-run election or expiration. Formally registered coalitions and alliances count only if registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline, not post-election governing arrangements.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate trader conviction, betting incentives, and real-time information flow. While polls capture voter intent at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reward accurate forecasts with financial gain, potentially surfacing insights that surveys miss. For the Aberdeen South by-election, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent constituency polls and national polling averages can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors—campaign momentum, local issues, or turnout expectations—that standard surveys have not yet reflected. Both data sources offer complementary perspectives on the likely outcome.
The Aberdeen South by-election winner market on Kalshi is scheduled to resolve on Jun 18, 2027. Resolution will be determined by the official result declared by the UK Electoral Commission and confirmed by the returning officer for Aberdeen South. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the most votes and is declared elected to the House of Commons. Traders should monitor announcements from the Electoral Commission and local authorities as the election date approaches to stay informed of any changes to timing or procedures that could affect final settlement.
Several catalysts could shift market prices for the Aberdeen South by-election winner before Jun 18, 2027. Major campaign developments, candidate announcements, or withdrawals would likely trigger repricing. National political events—government policy shifts, scandals, or changes in party leadership—often influence local by-election sentiment. Polling releases specific to Aberdeen South or regional surveys would provide new data for traders to incorporate. Media coverage of local issues, candidate debates, and turnout expectations in the run-up to polling day can all move odds. Finally, changes in betting patterns or new trader participation may reflect evolving conviction about the likely winner.
