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7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 7, 2026?
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 7, 2026?

Volume:
$26,517

4.46% or above

 - Kalshi

4.46% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,843
N/A
N/A
$1,499
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,443
N/A
N/A
$1,797
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,672
N/A
N/A
$720
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,336
N/A
N/A
$1,336
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$795
N/A
N/A
$785
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$777
N/A
N/A
$777
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$417
N/A
N/A
$317
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,349
N/A
N/A
$2,264
Settled
No
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,788
N/A
N/A
$2,358
Settled
No
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,406
N/A
N/A
$1,339
Settled
No
kalshi

4.58% or above

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,161
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
No
kalshi

4.64% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,620
N/A
N/A
$1,545
Settled
No
kalshi

4.56% or above

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,329
N/A
N/A
$1,010
Settled
No
kalshi

4.62% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,177
N/A
N/A
$1,148
Settled
No
kalshi

4.6% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$407
N/A
N/A
$138
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key interest rate benchmark, reflecting expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy. The outcome depends on whether the yield reaches specific thresholds, offering insights into future financial market sentiment and policy directions.

Kalshi

Each market in this event resolves based on whether the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on August 7, 2026. Thresholds range incrementally from 4.35% to 4.63%, with each market corresponding to a different level. All markets share a common expiration timeline: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM ET on the day the yield data is released for August 7, 2026, or one week after that date. This structure allows multiple markets to operate simultaneously, each sensitive to a distinct yield level, enabling granular speculation on the precise yield outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for short_topic on Kalshi tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $17,135. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the future level of the 7-year US Treasury yield as of August 7, 2026, giving you a real-time view of market expectations and liquidity through $26,517 in total volume.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time, crowd-sourced estimate of where the 7-year US Treasury yield might stand. While analysts may publish target ranges or scenarios based on economic models, this market reflects the aggregated bets of traders who can react instantly to new data, potentially providing a leading indicator of market sentiment and short-term expectations.

Key events that could shift this market include Federal Reserve policy decisions, major economic data releases such as inflation or employment reports, shifts in global risk sentiment, and significant developments in the US government debt market. Any surprise announcements or changes in monetary policy guidance are likely to cause rapid re-pricing as traders update their expectations for long-term interest rates.