TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 3, 2026?
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 3, 2026?

Volume:
$21,849

4.42% or above

 - Kalshi

4.42% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,526
N/A
N/A
$646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,707
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,726
N/A
N/A
$1,536
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,606
N/A
N/A
$97
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
$203
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
$1,426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
$1,426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,391
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$579
N/A
N/A
$116
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.58% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,630
N/A
N/A
$661
Settled
No
kalshi

4.56% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,389
N/A
N/A
$545
Settled
No
kalshi

4.62% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
$388
Settled
No
kalshi

4.6% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$232
Settled
No
kalshi

4.64% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$46
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key U.S. government bond yield, reflecting investor expectations about interest rates and economic conditions. The outcome depends on whether the yield crosses specific thresholds, offering multiple perspectives on potential rate movements. Such markets allow participants to bet on the direction of interest rate changes based on economic forecasts.

Kalshi

The event consists of multiple markets, each with a distinct threshold for the 7-year U.S. Treasury par yield on August 3, 2026. For any given market, if the published yield exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., 4.35%, 4.37%, etc.), that market resolves to 'Yes.' All markets share a common expiration rule: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the official yield data release for August 3, 2026, or one week following that date. This structure creates a series of binary outcomes, each corresponding to a progressively higher yield level, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of potential rate increases.