TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

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$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 10, 2026?
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 10, 2026?

Volume:
$3,871

4.53% or above

 - Kalshi

4.53% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.53% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,193
N/A
N/A
$902
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.51% or above

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$477
N/A
N/A
$157
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.47% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$238
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.49% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$328
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.45% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.43% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
$220
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.55% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$174
N/A
N/A
$141
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.41% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.57% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
No
kalshi

4.59% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$114
Settled
No
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds by setting different threshold levels for resolution. Each market evaluates whether the yield surpasses a specific benchmark on a set date, offering varied perspectives on future interest rate expectations.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury exceeds specified percentage thresholds on August 10, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, incrementally increasing by two basis points from 4.40% to 4.68%. All markets share a common expiration rule: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for August 10, 2026, or one week after August 10, 2026. This structure allows participants to assess varying degrees of yield movement, with each threshold representing a distinct level of market expectation regarding interest rate trends.