TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?

Volume:
$5,879

4.64% or above

 - Kalshi

4.64% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.64% or above

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,378
N/A
N/A
$411
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.7% or above

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,161
N/A
N/A
$605
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.58% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$601
N/A
N/A
$601
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.66% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$355
N/A
N/A
$355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.74% or above

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$315
N/A
N/A
$301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.72% or above

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
100%
87%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
$302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$296
N/A
N/A
$296
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.6% or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.62% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.56% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.68% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

4.82% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This event tracks the performance of U.S. government debt, specifically focusing on the interest rate for a five-year Treasury note at a set future date. The outcome depends on whether this rate surpasses various thresholds, reflecting expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy over the coming years.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the par yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury note as of September 11, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct level above which the yield must rise for the corresponding market to resolve positively. All markets share a uniform expiration timeline, closing at the earlier of two specified times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official yield data release for that date, or one week after September 11, 2026. This structure allows participants to bet on varying degrees of yield increases, with each market resolving based on its specific threshold being met or not by the predetermined valuation date and time frame.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 5Y US Treasury yield market tracks the current price, 24-hour volume of $2,022, and total volume of $5,879. You can also view the price history to see how expectations have shifted over time. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The platform displays the implied probability of different yield levels being realized on September 11, 2026, based on the prices being offered by buyers and sellers. This is a key resource for anyone interested in understanding the market's outlook.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where the 5Y US Treasury yield will be on September 11, 2026. It’s often insightful to compare this market’s implied expectations with those of financial analysts and economic polls. Do analysts anticipate a similar yield, or are their predictions significantly higher or lower? Discrepancies between this market and conventional forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or unique insights held by traders. Tracking these differences can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes and associated risks.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and trades occur when there's a price match. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s consensus expectation of the 5Y US Treasury yield on the resolution date. As more information becomes available and traders update their views, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic representation of market sentiment. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate forecasts, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the eventual yield.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 5Y US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider at the close of trading on that day. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual yield. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and September 11, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers, will be closely watched. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, including interest rate hikes or cuts, could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also introduce volatility. Any news that alters expectations about future economic growth or inflation is likely to move this market.