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5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 7, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 7, 2026?

Volume:
$36,033

4.28% or above

 - Kalshi

4.28% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.28% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,267
N/A
N/A
$3,562
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.34% or above

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,261
N/A
N/A
$1,530
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.32% or above

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,746
N/A
N/A
$1,833
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.26% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,578
N/A
N/A
$1,467
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.3% or above

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
$1,238
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,183
N/A
N/A
$879
Settled
No
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,906
N/A
N/A
$2,132
Settled
No
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,578
N/A
N/A
$1,375
Settled
No
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,517
N/A
N/A
$1,806
Settled
No
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,592
N/A
N/A
$1,174
Settled
No
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,489
N/A
N/A
$1,359
Settled
No
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,473
N/A
N/A
$1,287
Settled
No
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,362
N/A
N/A
$537
Settled
No
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,360
N/A
N/A
$544
Settled
No
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,269
N/A
N/A
$1,081
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting different threshold levels for a specific date. Each market examines whether the yield surpasses a particular benchmark, offering varied perspectives on future interest rate expectations. The outcomes reflect varying degrees of yield increases, providing insight into potential economic trends.

Kalshi

These markets collectively assess whether the par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury will exceed specified thresholds on August 7, 2026. Each individual market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.25% to 4.53%, with a corresponding resolution condition that triggers a 'Yes' outcome if the yield surpasses the respective threshold. All markets share a uniform expiration protocol: they will close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for August 7, 2026, or one week after August 7, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on different levels of yield movement, effectively creating a spectrum of possible outcomes for the same underlying financial indicator on a single date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 5Y US Treasury yield market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $21,470. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the future direction of this key interest rate benchmark, with updates reflecting market sentiment and recent economic data releases.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of where the 5-year Treasury yield may land. While analysts may incorporate longer-term economic models, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, shifting the implied probability in ways that can diverge from consensus estimates.

On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the 5Y US Treasury yield market through continuous bidding and asking. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability reflects collective expectations about future interest rate movements, influenced by economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy signals, and market sentiment. Volume of $36,033 provides insight into trader engagement, while recent 24-hour volume of $21,470 shows short-term activity levels. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows participants to bet on yield direction based on evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Key events that could shift this market include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, updates to US economic growth forecasts, inflation data releases, and Treasury auction results. Shifts in global risk sentiment or major geopolitical developments may also influence yield expectations. Traders will watch these signals closely, as each new piece of information could reshape market participants' views on where the 5-year yield will stand by Aug 7, 2026.