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$134b

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400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

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2,633

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5

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39%

VS.

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5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 3, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 3, 2026?

Volume:
$19,865

4.3% or above

 - Kalshi

4.3% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.3% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,791
N/A
N/A
$491
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,566
N/A
N/A
$353
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.26% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,496
N/A
N/A
$1,495
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.28% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,496
N/A
N/A
$1,494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,109
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$918
N/A
N/A
$330
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.32% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$280
N/A
N/A
$280
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.34% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$180
N/A
N/A
$180
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,328
N/A
N/A
$1,729
Settled
No
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,132
N/A
N/A
$591
Settled
No
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,992
N/A
N/A
$1,059
Settled
No
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
$1,289
Settled
No
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$463
N/A
N/A
$463
Settled
No
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$462
N/A
N/A
$442
Settled
No
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$362
N/A
N/A
$255
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield, reflecting investor expectations about interest rates, economic growth, and monetary policy by a specific future date. Each market outcome represents a different yield threshold, allowing participants to speculate on the likelihood of various economic scenarios.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the par yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury as of August 3, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the yield exceeds the stated percentage on that date, the market settles 'Yes'; otherwise, it settles 'No'. All markets share identical expiration rules, closing at the earlier of two possible times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data release for August 3, 2026, or one week following August 3, 2026. This structure creates a series of escalating yield thresholds, enabling participants to assess the probability distribution of future interest rate levels through a cascading set of binary outcomes.