TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026?

Volume:
$6,834

4.4% or above

 - Kalshi

4.4% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 28, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,863
N/A
N/A
$2,191
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,106
N/A
N/A
$1,103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$999
N/A
N/A
$436
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
100%
79%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$511
N/A
N/A
$411
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
$325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
$216
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
$149
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.34% or above

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$130
N/A
N/A
$67
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.3% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.32% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
$33
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.26% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.28% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield, reflecting investor expectations about interest rates and economic conditions. Each market assesses whether the yield will surpass specific thresholds, offering granular insights into possible rate changes.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury as of August 28, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the yield exceeds a specific level (e.g., 4.25%, 4.27%, up to 4.53%), the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' Expiration occurs at the earlier of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official data release for August 28, 2026, or one week after August 28, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on various yield levels, with each threshold representing a different level of market expectation regarding interest rate movements.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 5Y US Treasury yield market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $5,105. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the future direction of the 5Y US Treasury yield market, with updates reflecting market sentiment and recent trading activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term economic models and policy outlooks, traders in this market react quickly to news, economic data releases, and shifting investor sentiment, potentially creating divergence from conventional forecasts.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post their bids and offers. The current implied probability reflects the balance of these orders, showing the collective expectation of traders about where the 5-year Treasury yield will stand at the specified future date.

This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield level will be determined by authoritative financial data sources at the close of trading on that day, and the market will settle based on that verified figure.

Key signals that could move this market include major economic data releases such as nonfarm payrolls, inflation figures, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and shifts in global risk sentiment. Any unexpected changes in monetary policy guidance or significant treasury auction results may also cause rapid shifts in trader positioning leading up to Aug 28, 2026.