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5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026?

Volume:
$7,200

4.4% or above

 - Kalshi

4.4% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,064
N/A
N/A
$939
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.32% or above

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,011
N/A
N/A
$1,011
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$930
N/A
N/A
$687
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.26% or above

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$844
N/A
N/A
$844
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$825
N/A
N/A
$621
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.22% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.3% or above

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
$302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.24% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.28% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.18% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.16% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.2% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.34% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,399
N/A
N/A
$763
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets track potential movements in the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting different threshold levels for a specific future date. Each market evaluates whether the yield surpasses a particular benchmark, offering varied perspectives on future interest rate expectations. The outcomes reflect diverse forecasts for economic conditions and monetary policy impacts.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on August 21, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.15% to 4.43%. If the yield on that date is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either the first 7:00 PM ET following the official data release for August 21, 2026, or one week after August 21, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration rule, ensuring consistency across differing yield level assessments.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market suggests a different outlook than many traditional analysts, who often rely on economic indicators and central bank policies. While analysts may project various paths for the yield based on inflation data and Fed actions, traders are pricing in their own expectations, which can diverge significantly depending on recent market movements and sentiment shifts.

This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield level will be determined by official data releases and widely accepted financial sources, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants on Kalshi.

Key events that could shift this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major economic data releases such as inflation or employment reports, and unexpected geopolitical developments. Shifts in investor sentiment or major changes in global risk appetite may also cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their expectations ahead of the Aug 21, 2026 settlement date.