TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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3rd largest private company end of June?
polymarket

3rd largest private company end of June?

Volume:
$87,786

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,994
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stripe

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Neuralink

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lambda

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,072
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anduril

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,807
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

SpaceX

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Databricks

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,759
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Epic Games

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Perplexity

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kraken

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Canva

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks which private company will hold the third-largest valuation according to private market data on June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, OpenAI is priced at 83.5% to claim that position, while Anthropic stands at 14.0%. Resolution will be determined by NPM valuations published through the SecondMarket platform, with final data expected by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, establishing which private company holds the third highest valuation as of June 30. Resolution depends on verified rankings of private company market capitalizations at that specific date. Official sources such as private equity databases, company announcements, and financial data providers determine the final standings. The outcome is binary: either OpenAI ranks third or it does not. Once resolution criteria are met and confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Major funding announcements for leading private companies like Stripe, SpaceX, or OpenAI will directly impact valuation rankings and shift market odds. Secondary market transactions or employee stock sales revealing new valuations can trigger rapid repricing. Regulatory developments affecting AI companies or space exploration ventures may alter investor sentiment toward OpenAI's relative standing. Macroeconomic shifts, venture capital funding trends, and changes in comparable public company valuations all influence private market assessments. Merger or acquisition activity involving top-tier private firms could reshape the competitive landscape, causing traders to reassess OpenAI's position in the third-place race.