TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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3rd largest private company end of July?
polymarket

3rd largest private company end of July?

Volume:
$10,001

Databricks

 - Polymarket

Databricks - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 3:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Databricks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stripe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$805
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Perplexity

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$733
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Neuralink

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Canva

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Epic Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lambda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anduril

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kraken

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the third-largest private company market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for this prediction event. Traders here are pricing the likelihood of which private firm will hold the third-highest valuation as of a specific date in late July. The interface shows current implied probability, recent trading activity, and depth of liquidity available at different price levels. This market reflects collective trader conviction about private company rankings, updated continuously as new information about valuations emerges. Volume and participation metrics help gauge market confidence in the outcome.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst estimates because traders incorporate real-time information and face direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. While equity research teams may publish periodic reports on private company valuations, this market aggregates live trader bets into a single probability. Analysts typically focus on fundamental metrics and long-term trends, whereas prediction markets react quickly to breaking news, funding announcements, or market sentiment shifts. Comparing the implied odds here to published analyst consensus can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric information or where conventional wisdom may be outdated.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes, with the price of each share reflecting its implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker mechanism, so prices adjust dynamically as traders place orders. Each outcome's price ranges from near-zero to near-one, and the sum of all outcome prices equals one dollar. Traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by holding shares of the outcome they believe will occur. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily prices can move in response to new information.

This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed by identifying which private company ranks as the third-largest by valuation on that date. Resolution relies on transparent, widely-reported data sources so that all traders can independently verify the result. Until that moment, the market remains open for trading, and prices may shift as new information about company valuations becomes available. Early resolution is possible if the outcome becomes mathematically certain before the official end date.

Major funding rounds, acquisitions, or public statements about valuations from private companies near the third-ranking position will likely shift odds significantly. Exits or mergers involving top-ranked firms could reshuffle the rankings and change which company lands in third place. Market sentiment around venture capital activity, economic conditions, and sector-specific news also influences trader expectations. Announcements from credible sources tracking private company valuations—such as industry databases or financial news outlets—often trigger repricing. Closer to Aug 1, 2026, confirmed valuation data will narrow uncertainty and drive final price convergence.