TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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3rd largest private company end of August?
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3rd largest private company end of August?

Volume:
$15,507

Databricks

 - Polymarket

Databricks - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 3:09 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Databricks

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Anduril

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lambda

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Stripe

0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Neuralink

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$856
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kraken

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$758
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Canva

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$736
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Epic Games

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Perplexity

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 3rd largest private company market tracks real-time odds and price history, showing how traders value the likelihood of different companies holding the third spot by August 31. You can also view 24-hour volume of $382 to gauge recent trading activity. This single-venue view updates continuously, reflecting Polymarket market sentiment without any cross-platform aggregation.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. By the end of August, authoritative business publications, financial disclosures, and reputable data providers will establish which private company holds the third-largest valuation, settling all contracts automatically based on that verified ranking.

Key signals include major funding rounds, high-profile contract announcements, or leadership changes at contending firms — all of which can dramatically shift perceived valuations. Earnings reports, mergers, or regulatory developments affecting competitive dynamics may also drive rapid market adjustments. As Sep 1, 2026 approaches, any news that redefines market capitalization comparisons will be closely watched by traders on Polymarket, potentially causing sharp movements in odds before settlement.