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$134.2b

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$1,438,389,636

404,028

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events

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2,681

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5

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30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026?
kalshi

30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026?

Volume:
$12,465

5.21% or above

 - Kalshi

5.21% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 28, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.21% or above

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,832
N/A
N/A
$688
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.19% or above

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,982
N/A
N/A
$693
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.17% or above

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,352
N/A
N/A
$590
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.15% or above

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.13% or above

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.11% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.23% or above

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$994
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
No
kalshi

5.25% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$924
N/A
N/A
$502
Settled
No
kalshi

5.35% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$843
N/A
N/A
$843
Settled
No
kalshi

5.27% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$616
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
No
kalshi

5.31% or above

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$112
Settled
No
kalshi

5.29% or above

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.33% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
No
kalshi

5.37% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.39% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of long-term U.S. government debt, specifically focusing on whether borrowing costs for the federal government will reach certain high levels by a set date. It reflects expectations about economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy over the next several years. The outcome depends entirely on official interest rate data released by financial markets.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury note as of August 28, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold between 5.10% and 5.38%, with a 'Yes' outcome occurring if the published yield exceeds its specific threshold. All markets share identical expiration mechanics: they close at the earlier of 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data release, or one week following August 28, 2026. The structure creates a ladder of progressively higher yield requirements across the 15 markets, allowing participants to bet on different levels of potential interest rate movement.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 30Y Treasury yield market on Kalshi tracks current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $8,646. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the future direction of long-term U.S. government bond rates, giving you a real-time view of market expectations through price action and trading activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time, crowd-sourced outlook shaped by trader behavior rather than expert opinion alone. While analysts may publish target ranges or scenarios based on economic models, this market reflects aggregated bets that can react instantly to new data, news, or shifts in investor sentiment, often revealing probabilities that differ from consensus views.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current implied probability reflecting the balance of buy and sell orders. Market depth, recent trades, and open interest all feed into the displayed odds, adjusting dynamically as new information influences participant expectations about long-term interest rate movements.

Key signals include major Federal Reserve policy decisions, shifts in inflation expectations, changes to long-term growth forecasts, and significant Treasury auction results. Geopolitical developments, budget policy updates, and surprise economic data releases can also cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their bets on the direction of long-term U.S. bond yields.