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30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 14, 2026?
kalshi

30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 14, 2026?

Volume:
$14,382

5.24% or above

 - Kalshi

5.24% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,238
N/A
N/A
$1,708
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,239
N/A
N/A
$522
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$726
N/A
N/A
$378
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$371
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$546
N/A
N/A
$289
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$471
N/A
N/A
$253
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.08% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$375
N/A
N/A
$375
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$348
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.06% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$310
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.28% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,107
N/A
N/A
$1,559
Settled
No
kalshi

5.3% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,622
N/A
N/A
$1,509
Settled
No
kalshi

5.32% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,439
N/A
N/A
$1,425
Settled
No
kalshi

5.34% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$888
N/A
N/A
$785
Settled
No
kalshi

5.26% or above

View
0%
87%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
$429
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of long-term U.S. government debt, specifically focusing on whether borrowing costs for 30-year Treasury bonds exceed certain thresholds by a set date. Such yields reflect investor expectations about future economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy over extended periods.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on August 14, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 5.05% to 5.33%, with a 'Yes' outcome if the yield closes above the respective threshold on that date. All markets share identical expiration rules: they close at the earlier of 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the yield data release for August 14, 2026, or one week following that date. This structure allows multiple markets to operate concurrently, each testing a different yield level while maintaining uniform timing for resolution and expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds often assign different probabilities based on trader sentiment and real-time data flows. While analysts may weigh economic indicators and policy signals methodically, this market incorporates a broader set of inputs from participants betting with their own capital. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably, sometimes highlighting under- or over-valued expectations in conventional outlooks.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, adjusting for new economic data, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk sentiment. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate of these micro-bets, updated instantly as market conditions shift. Volume of $14,382 supports these price movements, showing how actively participants are engaging with the contract.

This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield level will be drawn from authoritative financial data providers at the close of that day, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement that matches real-world market close figures.

Key events that could shift this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major economic reports such as nonfarm payrolls or inflation readings, unexpected geopolitical developments, and shifts in global risk appetite. Any data surprising consensus estimates or altering long-term growth and inflation expectations may cause rapid re-pricing, especially as Aug 14, 2026 approaches and traders adjust positions based on narrowing time horizons.