TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

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2,798,566,680

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$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

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2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

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30-year mortgage rate this week
kalshi

What will the 30-year mortgage rate be?

Volume:
$85,922

Above 7.30%

 - Kalshi

Above 7.30% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 11:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 7.30%

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,132
N/A
N/A
$5,641
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.23%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,497
N/A
N/A
$3,497
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.25%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,604
N/A
N/A
$2,604
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.24%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,359
N/A
N/A
$2,359
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.27%

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,308
N/A
N/A
$2,308
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.31%

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,866
N/A
N/A
$935
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.28%

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,068
N/A
N/A
$1,048
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.29%

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$402
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.26%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$296
N/A
N/A
$296
5d 18h 9m
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.46%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,101
N/A
N/A
$13,101
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.32%

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,308
N/A
N/A
$2,344
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.45%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,818
N/A
N/A
$3,961
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.38%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,656
N/A
N/A
$3,316
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.34%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,589
N/A
N/A
$3,317
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.33%

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,695
N/A
N/A
$2,063
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.39%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,657
N/A
N/A
$2,969
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.35%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,870
N/A
N/A
$2,380
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.43%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,308
N/A
N/A
$1,996
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.40%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,268
N/A
N/A
$2,264
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.37%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,094
N/A
N/A
$1,436
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.47%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,000
N/A
N/A
$2,000
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.44%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,813
N/A
N/A
$1,719
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.36%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,755
N/A
N/A
$1,755
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.41%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,652
N/A
N/A
$1,388
5d 18h 9m
No
kalshi

Above 7.48%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,512
N/A
N/A
$1,512
5d 18h 9m
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average for a specific week in 2026. Each market represents a different threshold rate, allowing participants to speculate on whether the actual rate will exceed various levels.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for the week of Oct 22, 2026, as published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). The measurement period for a standard Thursday publication runs from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The resulting national average is published Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the published average exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 7.30% to 7.48%). Only the first published PMMS value for the specified week is used; subsequent corrections or revisions after expiration do not affect resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 30-year mortgage rate market tracks the current price of contracts representing different potential mortgage rate levels. You’ll find a price history chart showcasing how the perceived probability of various outcomes has changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $16,866, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which stands at $85,742. This allows you to understand market sentiment and activity surrounding future mortgage rates.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for mortgage rates. While analysts often rely on economic indicators and models, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individual traders. These traders consider a wide range of factors, potentially including those not fully captured in standard economic analyses. This can lead to divergences between what this market predicts and what is commonly expected by financial experts, offering a unique view on potential rate movements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to different 30-year mortgage rate ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that rate range being the actual rate at the time of resolution. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast of where mortgage rates are headed. This creates a forward-looking indicator based on the wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 30-year mortgage rate is verifiable from credible public reporting. The rate used for resolution will be the average of the rates published by a widely-followed source, as determined by Kalshi. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct rate range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect ranges will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly move this market. Unexpected changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and shifts in the overall economic outlook are all likely to influence trader behavior. Stronger-than-expected jobs reports could push rates higher, while signs of economic slowdown might lead to lower rates. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions could also play a role, as these factors can impact investor confidence and demand for mortgage-backed securities.