TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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30-year mortgage rate this week
kalshi

What will the 30-year mortgage rate be?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:00 PM EST - Nov 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$26,540
Volume 24h:
$9,937
9%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$23,763
64%

Above 7.13%

 - Kalshi

Above 7.13% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 12, 2026

Time left: 09d:19h:57m

Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 5, 2026 be above 7.13%?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% High Projected APY: 4,577% 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 7.13%

Trade
90%
Yes 90¢No 23¢
13¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.16%

Trade
43%
15%
Yes 54¢No 57¢
11¢
N/A
$1,003
99%
N/A
$820
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.17%

Trade
33%
4%
Yes 34¢No 67¢
1¢
N/A
$1,563
39%
N/A
$894
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.18%

Trade
15%
8%
Yes 28¢No 83¢
11¢
N/A
$2,649
6%
N/A
$1,804
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.19%

Trade
14%
Yes 21¢No 86¢
7¢
N/A
$1,365
3%
N/A
$1,025
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.20%

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 93¢
7¢
N/A
$314
17%
N/A
$291
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.22%

Trade
7%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
N/A
$437
0%
N/A
$437
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.21%

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 8¢No 96¢
4¢
N/A
$376
239%
N/A
$135
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.23%

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$511
6%
N/A
$484
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.25%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$309
9%
N/A
$305
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.26%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$146
7,189%
N/A
$96
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.27%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$8,795
1,636%
N/A
$8,607
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.29%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,500
0%
N/A
$5,500
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.24%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$1,408
0%
N/A
$1,324
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.30%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,142
0.09%
N/A
$1,019
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.28%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,012
0%
N/A
$1,012
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.15%

Trade
N/A
N/A
14¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.14%

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.12%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.10%

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 19h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.11%

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 19h
Active
Total markets: 21

Description

These markets track predictions for the U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average on a specific date, using data from Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Outcomes depend on whether the published rate exceeds various threshold levels, reflecting expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy.

Kalshi

All markets use the same underlying data source: the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week of November 5, 2026. For standard Thursday publications, the measurement period runs from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with the average published Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the published average exceeds its specific threshold (ranging from 7.16% to 7.30%). Only the first published PMMS value for the specified week is considered; any subsequent corrections or revisions after expiration do not affect resolution. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the average rate crosses its designated threshold, with no additional conditions or calculations applied.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 30-year mortgage rate market tracks the current price of contracts representing predictions about the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate in November 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the perceived probability of different outcomes has changed over time. The dashboard also displays the current 24-hour volume of $9,682 and the total volume traded to date of $26,540. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating in this market and how much money is at stake.

Currently, the odds offered in this market reflect the collective prediction of traders on Kalshi. These predictions are often compared to those of economic analysts and polls. If analysts generally predict a rate above 7.24% for November 5, 2026, the contracts predicting a rate above that level will likely be more expensive. Conversely, if analysts anticipate lower rates, those contracts will be cheaper. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a different type of forecast, based on incentivized participation and real-money stakes, rather than expert opinion.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate on November 5, 2026, falls within a specific range, and $0 otherwise. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with more buyers driving the price up and more sellers driving it down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate reported on November 5, 2026. The specific source used for this rate will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available prior to resolution. Traders will then receive their payouts based on whether their contracts align with the actual rate at that time. The outcome is determined by a publicly available and verifiable data point.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of mortgage rates. Inflation data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will also be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in the labor market, including unemployment figures and wage growth, can influence investor expectations about future interest rates. Geopolitical events and overall economic growth projections could also contribute to price movements in this market.