TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
polymarket

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

Volume:
$100,861

Meta

 - Polymarket

Meta - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 31, 2026

Closed: Oct 31, 2:27 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Meta

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,932
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,858
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Thinky

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,749
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

SpaceXAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$984
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

StepFun

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI Lab Style Control market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $100,856, with $4,023 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard visualizes how traders are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes related to the positioning of AI labs. It provides a real-time view of market sentiment and allows users to analyze trading activity to understand how opinions are shifting. This is a useful resource for anyone following this specific prediction market.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts on the ranking of AI labs. However, the market reflects a collective prediction from a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not readily available in traditional analyst reports. If analysts were polled today, would they agree with the implied probabilities reflected in this market? The current pricing suggests a different view than a simple consensus might indicate, offering a unique perspective on the future landscape of AI research and development. This market provides a dynamic, real-time assessment of probabilities.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market utilizes a liquidity pool model, meaning prices adjust based on the supply and demand of shares. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up the price, indicating increased confidence in that outcome. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on determining which AI labs are considered the top contenders at that time, based on publicly available rankings and assessments of their research output, funding, and influence. The outcome will be determined by a widely accepted and verifiable assessment of the AI lab landscape. The market’s resolution will reflect the prevailing consensus regarding the leading AI research institutions at the specified resolution date.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major breakthroughs in AI research from specific labs, substantial funding announcements, or shifts in leadership could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected acquisitions or partnerships between AI companies could also move the market. Furthermore, changes in the competitive landscape, such as the emergence of a new, rapidly growing AI lab, could alter the perceived probabilities. Any news that affects the relative standing or future prospects of these labs has the potential to shift the odds in this market before Nov 1, 2026.