TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 7?
polymarket

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 7?

Volume:
$11,191

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 11:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$936
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$808
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$791
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$782
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$721
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the current odds of various outcomes for which AI lab will hold the largest market share by the week of September 7th. It also displays the price history of the market, allowing users to see how predictions have changed over time. Furthermore, the dashboard provides a view of the 24-hour volume, indicating the level of trading activity and interest in this market. Currently, the total volume for this market is $11,191 with $1,773 traded in the last 24 hours.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst predictions. The pricing in this market represents what traders believe, based on available information, about the likelihood of each AI lab achieving the largest market share. Comparing these probabilities to those offered by industry observers can reveal interesting insights into differing expectations.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe an AI lab will lead, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on determining which AI lab, as defined by OpenRouter, holds the largest market share during the week of September 7th. The specific methodology used to calculate market share will be the determining factor, and this will be verified against publicly available data. Traders should review the market details on Polymarket for further information regarding the resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from the leading AI labs regarding new model releases, partnerships, or funding rounds could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected regulatory changes affecting the AI industry could also play a role. Furthermore, any news regarding the performance or adoption rates of different AI models, or shifts in the overall AI landscape, could influence the probabilities reflected in this market. Positive or negative press coverage surrounding specific AI labs could also contribute to price movements.