TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?
polymarket

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?

Volume:
$15,932

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 3:05 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
Yes
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,597
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$899
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$596
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$531
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$449
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$396
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 49m
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 6, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 6, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the odds of different AI labs holding the third-largest market share within the OpenRouter ecosystem the week of October 26. It displays the implied probabilities for each outcome, reflecting the collective predictions of traders. You can also view the 24-hour volume, currently at $1,647, and the total volume traded on this market, which is $15,932. This allows users to gauge market interest and sentiment surrounding the leading AI models available through OpenRouter.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket suggest a strong expectation for one AI lab to secure the third spot in the OpenRouter market share. It’s interesting to compare this to external forecasts and polls regarding the performance and adoption rates of various AI models. While analyst predictions offer valuable insights, this market provides a unique perspective by aggregating the wisdom of the crowd, potentially revealing different expectations about the future trajectory of AI development and usage. This allows for a dynamic comparison of informed opinions and collective forecasting.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, research, and overall market sentiment regarding the competitive landscape of AI labs within the OpenRouter framework. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for the week of October 26.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official market share data released by OpenRouter for the week of October 26, determining which AI lab holds the third-largest share. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome. The market's resolution provides a clear and objective assessment of the AI landscape at that specific point in time.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new model releases, partnerships, or significant performance improvements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about the adoption rates of different AI models within the OpenRouter ecosystem, or changes in OpenRouter's platform features, could also drive price movements. Additionally, any prominent research publications or expert opinions on the relative strengths and weaknesses of these AI labs could impact trading activity and the overall probability assessments reflected in this market.