TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of August 31?
polymarket

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of August 31?

Volume:
$10,185

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 7, 5:34 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$807
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the current odds of different outcomes for which AI lab will hold the largest market share by the week of August 31. It displays the implied probabilities, reflecting what traders believe will happen. You can also view the 24-hour volume, indicating how much trading activity this market has seen recently, and the total volume traded to date. Currently, the total volume for this market is $10,185 with $5,049 traded in the last 24 hours.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the OpenRouter AI market share. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can provide a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions. This market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies between the market's implied probabilities and external forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the future of AI lab market share.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, based on supply and demand for each outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which AI lab, as defined by OpenRouter, holds the largest market share during the week of August 31. The resolution will rely on data published by OpenRouter, and the outcome will be based on the publicly available information regarding AI lab market share at that time. Traders should monitor OpenRouter's announcements for further details as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 8, 2026. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new models, partnerships, or funding rounds could shift expectations. Changes in the overall AI landscape, such as regulatory developments or shifts in user preferences, could also impact the perceived market share of different labs. Unexpected technological breakthroughs or setbacks experienced by any of the major players would likely cause significant price movement in this market, as traders adjust their forecasts based on the new information.