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2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?

Volume:
$10,221

4.81% or above

 - Kalshi

4.81% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 25, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.81% or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,181
N/A
N/A
$662
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.79% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$766
N/A
N/A
$360
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$720
N/A
N/A
$720
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.77% or above

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
$333
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.51% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$379
N/A
N/A
$379
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.75% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
$111
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.53% or above

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.55% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.73% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$82
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.71% or above

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.89% or above

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,785
N/A
N/A
$558
Settled
No
kalshi

4.87% or above

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,436
N/A
N/A
$336
Settled
No
kalshi

4.83% or above

View
0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,164
N/A
N/A
$578
Settled
No
kalshi

4.85% or above

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$928
N/A
N/A
$523
Settled
No
kalshi

4.91% or above

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$344
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

4.93% or above

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$233
Settled
No
kalshi

4.97% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

4.95% or above

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

4.99% or above

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

4.57% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.59% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key economic indicator, reflecting investor expectations about future interest rates and economic conditions. The outcome depends on whether a specific benchmark value exceeds a predetermined threshold on a set date, offering insights into market sentiment and economic forecasts.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the par yield of the 2-Year U.S. Treasury as of September 25, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct level above which the yield must rise for the corresponding market to resolve positively. All markets share a common expiration timeline, closing at the earlier of two specified times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for September 25, 2026, or one week after that date. This structure allows participants to bet on various yield levels, with each market resolving based on its unique threshold while adhering to uniform timing rules.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to make a direct comparison between the predictions embedded in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical surveys or individual analyst reports. This can lead to differences in projected probabilities, as this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders actively putting capital at risk. It’s worth noting that analysts’ forecasts are often point estimates, while this market provides a probability distribution of potential outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, similar to a stock exchange. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy) and asks (the price they are willing to sell) for contracts representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the point at which buyers and sellers agree, and it continuously updates as new information becomes available and traders adjust their expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective beliefs of participants regarding the future 2-year Treasury yield.

This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contract aligned with the actual yield at the time of resolution. The market’s outcome is based on the closing yield for the 2-year Treasury note on the specified date.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Inflation data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will be closely watched. Unexpected economic growth or recessionary signals, as indicated by GDP reports and employment figures, could also shift market sentiment. Geopolitical events and shifts in global economic conditions can also influence investor demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby affecting the 2-year yield.