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2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?

Volume:
$28,016

4.47% or above

 - Kalshi

4.47% or above - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.47% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,212
N/A
N/A
$2,060
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.45% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,176
N/A
N/A
$1,873
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.35% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,124
N/A
N/A
$1,313
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.39% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,042
N/A
N/A
$1,306
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.49% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,905
N/A
N/A
$599
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.33% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,862
N/A
N/A
$1,862
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.37% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,495
N/A
N/A
$1,381
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.53% or above

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,258
N/A
N/A
$502
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,066
N/A
N/A
$574
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.41% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,008
N/A
N/A
$807
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.43% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,005
N/A
N/A
$655
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.31% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$998
N/A
N/A
$797
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.25% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$952
N/A
N/A
$652
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.51% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$951
N/A
N/A
$627
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.59% or above

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$814
N/A
N/A
$312
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
$504
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.55% or above

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$668
N/A
N/A
$368
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.21% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$550
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.27% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$502
N/A
N/A
$502
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.23% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
$350
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.29% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
$275
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.57% or above

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
$153
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
$405
Settled
No
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This event tracks the performance of U.S. government debt, specifically focusing on the interest rate for two-year Treasury securities. The outcome depends on whether this rate surpasses various thresholds on a specific future date, reflecting expectations about economic policy and market conditions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 2-Year U.S. Treasury as published on September 11, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the yield exceeds a specific percentage (e.g., 4.20%, 4.22%, etc.), that market resolves to 'Yes.' Expiration occurs at the earlier of 7:00 PM ET following the official data release for that date or one week after September 11, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration framework, ensuring consistent timing across all yield thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US Treasury yield market tracks the current price of contracts representing predictions about the 2-Year US Treasury yield on September 11, 2026. You'll find a price history chart displaying how expectations have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $11,485. The total volume traded to date is $28,016. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and see how actively this particular prediction is being traded.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial institutions publish yield curve projections, these are often presented as point estimates or ranges with varying confidence intervals. This market provides a single, continuously updated probability distribution of potential outcomes, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. It's important to note that analyst forecasts and prediction market prices represent different methodologies and sources of information, and may diverge based on their respective assumptions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if the 2-Year US Treasury yield on September 11, 2026, is within a specific range, and less if it falls outside that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome determined by the 2-Year US Treasury yield as reported by a credible financial data source at the specified time. The yield will be verified against credible public reporting to ensure accuracy and transparency. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual yield falls within the ranges defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. This allows traders to profit from correctly anticipating future yield movements.

Several economic signals and events could significantly move this market before Sep 11, 2026. Key factors include changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, and macroeconomic data releases like inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in investor risk appetite could also influence Treasury yields. Furthermore, any news related to the US government's debt levels or fiscal policy could impact the market's expectations for future yields.