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2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 7, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 7, 2026?

Volume:
$31,183

4.19% or above

 - Kalshi

4.19% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.19% or above

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,815
N/A
N/A
$1,299
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.17% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,727
N/A
N/A
$1,600
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.15% or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,082
N/A
N/A
$1,562
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.11% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,838
N/A
N/A
$1,391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.13% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,820
N/A
N/A
$1,488
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.23% or above

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,088
N/A
N/A
$3,326
Settled
No
kalshi

4.21% or above

View
0%
67%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,679
N/A
N/A
$711
Settled
No
kalshi

4.25% or above

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,661
N/A
N/A
$1,629
Settled
No
kalshi

4.31% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
$1,594
Settled
No
kalshi

4.39% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,435
N/A
N/A
$1,434
Settled
No
kalshi

4.33% or above

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,401
N/A
N/A
$1,326
Settled
No
kalshi

4.37% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,082
N/A
N/A
$982
Settled
No
kalshi

4.35% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,065
N/A
N/A
$815
Settled
No
kalshi

4.27% or above

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$924
N/A
N/A
$587
Settled
No
kalshi

4.29% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$659
N/A
N/A
$555
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of two-year U.S. Treasury securities by setting various threshold levels for evaluation on a specific future date. Each threshold represents a different level of yield that, if exceeded, triggers a positive outcome. The structure allows participants to assess probabilities across a range of yield scenarios.

Kalshi

These markets evaluate whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury exceeds specified threshold levels on August 7, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct yield threshold, with a 'Yes' outcome occurring if the actual yield surpasses its respective threshold. All markets share identical expiration mechanics: they close at the earlier of two possible times—either 7:00 PM ET on the day following the official data release for August 7, 2026, or one week after August 7, 2026. This design creates a series of cascading thresholds where higher-threshold markets inherently require stronger yield movements to resolve positively. The structure enables granular probability assessment across a spectrum of potential yield outcomes, with each threshold acting as an independent but related test of market expectations regarding future interest rate levels.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2Y US Treasury yield market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume on Kalshi. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the future level of the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield as of Aug 7, 2026. The display updates continuously to reflect market activity, giving users insight into speculative sentiment and trading dynamics within this market.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome representing the most likely path as assessed by market participants. The odds adjust dynamically based on trading volume and recent price action, reflecting aggregated trader expectations for where the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will stand by Aug 7, 2026.

This market resolves around Aug 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final value will be determined by official financial data sources at that time, closing all positions based on the actual yield observed.

Several signals could influence this market before Aug 7, 2026. Key events include Federal Reserve policy announcements, U.S. Treasury auction results, major economic data releases such as nonfarm payrolls or inflation figures, and shifting investor risk appetite. Geopolitical developments and sudden changes in monetary policy expectations can also cause rapid shifts in yields, affecting trader positioning and market pricing as the resolution date approaches.