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2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 31, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 31, 2026?

Volume:
$18,098

4.18% or above

 - Kalshi

4.18% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.18% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,941
N/A
N/A
$887
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.34% or above

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,800
N/A
N/A
$425
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.16% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,628
N/A
N/A
$607
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.26% or above

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,315
N/A
N/A
$748
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.24% or above

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,191
N/A
N/A
$446
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.2% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,158
N/A
N/A
$521
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.28% or above

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$981
N/A
N/A
$441
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.22% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$844
N/A
N/A
$438
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.32% or above

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$641
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.3% or above

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$331
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.14% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.96% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3.98% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.12% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.1% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.02% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.04% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.06% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.08% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,249
N/A
N/A
$902
Settled
No
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,156
N/A
N/A
$381
Settled
No
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,053
N/A
N/A
$735
Settled
No
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$781
N/A
N/A
$530
Settled
No
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$543
N/A
N/A
$343
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of two-year U.S. Treasury securities by a specific date. Each market assesses whether the yield surpasses a particular threshold, offering insights into expectations about interest rate levels and broader economic conditions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on August 31, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.15% to 4.43%. If the yield on that date is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for August 31, 2026, or one week after August 31, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration rule, ensuring consistency across the series while allowing participants to speculate on different yield levels.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for short_topic on Kalshi tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $451. It shows how traders on Kalshi expect the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to move by the end date. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and recent trading activity, giving users insight into current expectations for this key financial indicator without needing to visit multiple sources.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where yields may head. While analysts may incorporate economic models and policy expectations over longer horizons, traders in this market react to real-time data, news, and sentiment — potentially creating tighter or more volatile price signals.

Economic data releases such as U.S. GDP figures, inflation reports, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and employment numbers could shift expectations for interest rates and move this market. Global events that affect investor sentiment, including geopolitical tensions or major policy changes, may also influence yields. Additionally, significant moves in broader bond markets or unexpected statements from central bank officials often lead to rapid adjustments in trading activity and prices.