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405,232

Markets across

30,526

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2,693

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2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 3, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 3, 2026?

Volume:
$16,765

4.13% or above

 - Kalshi

4.13% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.13% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,691
N/A
N/A
$1,442
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.25% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,786
N/A
N/A
$733
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.11% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,524
N/A
N/A
$1,519
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.23% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,122
N/A
N/A
$826
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.21% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$960
N/A
N/A
$331
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.19% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
$286
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.15% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.17% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$195
N/A
N/A
$137
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.29% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,155
N/A
N/A
$1,326
Settled
No
kalshi

4.27% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,833
N/A
N/A
$1,167
Settled
No
kalshi

4.31% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,658
N/A
N/A
$1,430
Settled
No
kalshi

4.33% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$586
N/A
N/A
$586
Settled
No
kalshi

4.35% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$442
N/A
N/A
$442
Settled
No
kalshi

4.39% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

4.37% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 2-Year U.S. Treasury yield, reflecting investor sentiment and economic expectations as seen through bond market pricing on a specific future date. Each market offers a different threshold for the yield, allowing participants to speculate on various levels of interest rate changes.

Kalshi

These markets collectively assess whether the par yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury will exceed specified thresholds on August 3, 2026. Each individual market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.10% to 4.38%. If the published yield for that date meets or exceeds the threshold specified in a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets share a common expiration rule: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for August 3, 2026, or one week after August 3, 2026. This structure allows traders to evaluate fine-grained possibilities for yield movements, with each threshold representing a distinct level of market expectation regarding interest rate conditions.