TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026?

Volume:
$15,647

4.34% or above

 - Kalshi

4.34% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 28, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.34% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,100
N/A
N/A
$6,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.28% or above

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,633
N/A
N/A
$1,113
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.22% or above

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,355
N/A
N/A
$498
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.26% or above

View
100%
96%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,344
N/A
N/A
$1,071
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.2% or above

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,270
N/A
N/A
$653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.3% or above

View
100%
85%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,196
N/A
N/A
$782
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.32% or above

View
100%
97%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,106
N/A
N/A
$704
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.24% or above

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$614
N/A
N/A
$494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.18% or above

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
$83
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.12% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.16% or above

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.06% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$120
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.08% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
$54
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.1% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.14% or above

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
$38
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.36% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.38% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.4% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.42% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.44% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.46% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.48% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.5% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.52% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.54% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of two-year U.S. Treasury notes by setting various threshold levels. Each market assesses whether the yield surpasses a specific benchmark on a set date, reflecting expectations about interest rate changes and broader economic conditions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 2-Year U.S. Treasury as of August 28, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, and if the yield exceeds the specified level, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for that date, or one week after August 28, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on different possible yield outcomes, with each threshold representing a unique prediction about the state of U.S. interest rates at that future point in time.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 2Y US Treasury yield market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $9,743. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the future direction of short-term U.S. government bond yields, reflecting market expectations for monetary policy and economic conditions through Aug 28, 2026.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often capture a broader range of expectations, including tail risks and sentiment from active traders. While analysts may publish mean estimates or scenario-based projections, this market provides a continuously updated probability distribution that reflects crowd-sourced wisdom, potentially offering a different perspective on yield movements.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post bids and asks. The current top outcome reflects the aggregated market sentiment and positions, with odds adjusting dynamically based on trading volume and order flow. This decentralized pricing mechanism allows participants to express nuanced views on future yield levels.

Key signals that could shift this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major economic data releases such as inflation or employment reports, shifting global risk sentiment, and unexpected geopolitical developments. Any event that influences expectations for near-term interest rate moves or overall economic growth can cause rapid adjustments in trader positioning and market odds.