TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026?

Volume:
$5,368

4.19% or above

 - Kalshi

4.19% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.19% or above

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,402
N/A
N/A
$1,284
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.23% or above

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$715
N/A
N/A
$501
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.21% or above

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$622
N/A
N/A
$481
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.11% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$346
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.01% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$327
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.17% or above

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.07% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.05% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$171
N/A
N/A
$171
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.03% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.09% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.15% or above

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.13% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.27% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$701
N/A
N/A
$564
Settled
No
kalshi

4.25% or above

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

4.29% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of two-year U.S. Treasury securities by setting various threshold levels. Each market assesses whether the yield surpasses a specific benchmark on a set date, offering insights into expectations about interest rate changes and broader economic conditions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on August 21, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, incrementally increasing by 0.02 percentage points from 4.00% to 4.28%. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the yield surpasses the respective threshold for that market. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for August 21, 2026, or one week after August 21, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on the likelihood of different yield levels being achieved, with each market providing a granular view of potential outcomes across a range of interest rate scenarios.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the 2-year US Treasury yield might sit. While analysts may incorporate economic models and policy expectations, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust their positions based on fresh data, news, and shifts in market sentiment.

Key signals that could shift this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major economic data releases such as inflation or employment reports, geopolitical developments affecting global capital flows, and unexpected shifts in investor risk appetite. Each of these can cause rapid re-pricing of yield expectations by traders on Kalshi.