TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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2nd largest private company end of July?
polymarket

2nd largest private company end of July?

Volume:
$26,656

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 3:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Neuralink

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lambda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Epic Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anduril

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Databricks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Stripe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kraken

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Perplexity

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Canva

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$439
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the second-largest private company market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for which private firm will hold the second-highest valuation as of late July. The interface displays the current probability assigned to each candidate company, along with historical price movements and recent trading volume. This live data reflects how traders are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes based on available information about private company valuations, funding rounds, and market developments. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, giving participants an up-to-date snapshot of market sentiment regarding which organization will rank second among all privately held companies.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on a small group of experts. In this market, traders incorporate proprietary research, recent funding announcements, and valuation reports to price outcomes dynamically. Analysts may publish periodic reports on private company rankings, but prediction markets update continuously and reflect the collective conviction of participants willing to stake capital. When major news breaks—such as a significant funding round or acquisition rumor—market odds typically adjust faster than formal analyst revisions, making them a complementary signal to traditional research.

On Polymarket, traders set odds by buying and selling shares that represent different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out a fixed amount if its outcome occurs, and the current market price of a share reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As participants trade based on their views of which company will rank second, the price discovery mechanism continuously adjusts odds in real time. Higher trading volume typically narrows bid-ask spreads and increases price accuracy, while lower volume can create wider gaps between buy and sell prices.

This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on identifying which private company holds the second-highest valuation on that date, based on the most recent and reliable valuation data available from reputable sources tracking private equity and venture capital. Once the ranking is established and verified, the market settles in favor of the correct outcome, and winning positions are paid out accordingly.

Major funding announcements, acquisitions, or IPO filings can significantly shift odds in this market. If a top-ranked private company goes public or is acquired, the second-place ranking may shift dramatically. Venture capital funding rounds that dramatically increase a company's valuation can also reshape the competitive landscape. Regulatory changes, market downturns, or geopolitical events affecting specific industries may influence investor sentiment and valuations. Additionally, any public statements from company leadership about growth plans or strategic pivots can trigger repricing as traders reassess which firms are most likely to occupy the second position by late July.