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Democratic by 91 to 130
- Kalshi
Democratic by 91 to 130 - Kalshi
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Resolves Jan 8, 2029
Latest in Elections
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?
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Intro
This market tracks the Electoral College margin separating the winner from the runner-up in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. On Kalshi, the outcome "Democratic win by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes" stands at 11.0%, while "Democratic win by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes" is also at 11.0%. The market resolves according to the official Electoral College vote count certified by Congress. Watch the 2028 general election results on November 5, 2028, which will determine the final Electoral College tally and settlement on January 8, 2029.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the Electoral College margin of victory in the 2028 presidential election, measured as the difference in electoral votes between the winning candidate and the second-place finisher. The market is segmented into fourteen distinct outcomes covering all possible margins from a 1-10 vote Democratic victory through a 211+ vote Republican victory. Democratic victories are categorized in seven brackets: 1-10, 11-30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-130, 131-210, and 211-538 votes. Republican victories are similarly categorized across seven brackets with identical vote ranges. Each outcome is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, ensuring exactly one market resolves affirmatively based on the final certified Electoral College results. The margin is calculated as the absolute difference between the leading candidate's electoral votes and those of the runner-up, regardless of the total number of electors or faithless electors.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different distribution of probabilities than traditional polling averages. Polling data tends to focus on stated preferences, while this market represents what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This can lead to divergences, especially when considering potential swing states or the likelihood of unexpected events. It's common to see prediction markets assign higher probabilities to less conventional outcomes than polls do, as they capture a broader range of informed opinions and potential strategic considerations.
This market resolves around Jan 8, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the final Electoral College vote count is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by each state and reported by major news organizations. The market will determine the winning margin based on the official Electoral College count, reflecting the outcome of the 2028 presidential election as determined by the U.S. electoral process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and resolution. Major economic shifts, significant geopolitical events, or unexpected developments in the campaigns of potential candidates could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Key primary debates, candidate announcements, and major policy proposals are likely to influence the market. Unexpected endorsements or scandals involving leading candidates could also lead to substantial price movements in this market, as traders react to changing perceptions of each candidate's chances.
