TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which party will win the most mayoral and gubernatorial races across South Korea's upper-level local governments in the 2026 elections. On Polymarket, the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) is priced at 98.1%, while the People Power Party (PPP) stands at 2.1%. Resolution will be determined by the South Korean National Election Commission's official results, with a party declared winner as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for competitors to match or exceed its number of wins. Watch the June 3, 2026 election day for the results across the eight mayoral races and nine provincial governor races that will determine the outcome.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated expectations from traders betting real capital, which often diverge from traditional polling. While polls measure stated voter preferences at a single point in time, prediction markets incorporate dynamic information including political developments, campaign momentum, and economic conditions. The market's pricing of the PPP's chances represents a continuous reassessment as new information emerges. Comparing these two signals helps identify whether traders believe polling data underestimates or overestimates the likelihood of a particular outcome in the 2026 local elections.
The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, following the official conclusion of South Korea's 2026 local elections. Resolution is determined by the official results announced by South Korean electoral authorities regarding which party wins the majority of local government seats and positions contested in that election cycle. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive payouts proportional to their holdings, while incorrect predictions result in losses. The timing ensures that all votes are counted and certified before market settlement occurs.
Several categories of events could shift market odds significantly. Major political developments—such as leadership changes within the PPP or opposition parties, high-profile scandals, or policy announcements—often trigger sharp repricing. Economic indicators including inflation, employment, and growth rates influence voter sentiment and party support. International relations developments, particularly regarding North Korea or trade, can affect domestic political dynamics. Interim elections, by-elections, or local referenda may signal shifting voter preferences. Media coverage of campaign activities, debate performances, and polling releases provide continuous information that traders incorporate into their positions, causing prices to fluctuate throughout the period leading to the June 2026 elections.