2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Turnout

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money bets from traders and reflect collective expectations about Seoul voter participation. While traditional polling measures voter intent directly, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment, recent political developments, and historical turnout patterns. The market's current pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty around whether turnout will land in the 50–55% band. Comparing market odds to pre-election surveys can reveal whether traders expect turnout to deviate from historical norms or recent polling signals.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, following the conclusion of the 2026 Seoul mayoral election. The outcome is determined by the official voter turnout percentage reported by Seoul election authorities. The specific turnout band—whether it falls between 50% and 55%, above 55%, or below 50%—will dictate which outcome shares pay out. Resolution occurs once verified turnout data becomes publicly available from official sources.

Several factors could shift market odds before the election. Major political developments—such as scandals, policy announcements, or shifts in candidate viability—often affect voter motivation and expected participation. Demographic trends, economic conditions, and competing elections or referenda can also influence turnout. Historical turnout data from prior Seoul elections and national trends provide benchmarks traders monitor. As the election date approaches, early voting participation rates and pre-election surveys will offer concrete signals that traders use to adjust their positions and refine turnout expectations.