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Science and Technology
2026 Nobel Physics winner?
kalshi

2026 Nobel Physics winner?

Volume:
$46,771

Alexei Kitaev

 - Kalshi

Alexei Kitaev - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 9:26 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Alexei Kitaev

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,556
N/A
N/A
$5,809
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Charles Kane

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,131
N/A
N/A
$7,274
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Allan MacDonald

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,502
N/A
N/A
$4,879
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

John Pendry

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,212
N/A
N/A
$2,942
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Pablo Jarillo-Herrero

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,503
N/A
N/A
$3,067
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

John Preskill

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,335
N/A
N/A
$3,092
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Peter Shor

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,780
N/A
N/A
$1,348
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Federico Capasso

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,476
N/A
N/A
$1,342
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Eugene Mele

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,399
N/A
N/A
$1,137
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Yves Meyer

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$645
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Michael Berry

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$640
N/A
N/A
$518
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Ewine van Dishoeck

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$631
N/A
N/A
$571
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Yakir Aharonov

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$566
N/A
N/A
$530
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Sara Seager

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
$370
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Simon White

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$169
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Carlos Frenk

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$164
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

David Charbonneau

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199
N/A
N/A
$88
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Jainendra Jain

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$195
N/A
N/A
$173
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Stéphane Mallat

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$174
N/A
N/A
$131
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Ingrid Daubechies

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$156
N/A
N/A
$134
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Rafi Bistritzer

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$92
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Marc Davis

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$112
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Moty Heiblum

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$78
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

James Eisenstein

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
$73
1mo 4w 1d
No
Total markets: 24

Description

This event concerns whether a specific candidate from a curated list of accomplished scientists will win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics. The list spans diverse fields within physics and related disciplines, including condensed matter physics, exoplanet detection, quantum mechanics, cosmology, metamaterials, and quantum information theory. The market will resolve affirmatively if any of these individuals receives the prestigious award.

Kalshi

If Charles Kane has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eugene Mele has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If David Charbonneau has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sara Seager has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pablo Jarillo-Herrero has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Allan MacDonald has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rafi Bistritzer has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jainendra Jain has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Moty Heiblum has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Eisenstein has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ewine van Dishoeck has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yakir Aharonov has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Berry has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Simon White has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Carlos Frenk has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marc Davis has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Pendry has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Federico Capasso has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ingrid Daubechies has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stéphane Mallat has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yves Meyer has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Peter Shor has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexei Kitaev has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Preskill has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights. Often, this market reflects a broader range of potential winners than traditional expert predictions, incorporating a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect. While analysts may focus on established researchers with extensive publications, this market can give weight to emerging scientists or unexpected breakthroughs. It’s common to see discrepancies, with the market assigning higher probabilities to candidates overlooked by mainstream analysis, or vice versa. However, as the announcement date approaches, the market tends to converge with expert opinion.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a specific candidate, the price of their contract increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of winning. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the Nobel Prize in Physics winner is announced and verifiable from credible public reporting. The official announcement by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will serve as the determining factor. The market will settle to 100 for the winning individual and 0 for all other candidates. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major scientific breakthroughs in physics, particularly those receiving widespread media attention, would likely shift the odds. Pre-Nobel Prize announcements, such as prestigious awards or significant research grants awarded to potential candidates, could also cause movement. Unexpected publications or collaborations among leading physicists could also influence trading activity. Finally, any news regarding the health or status of prominent researchers could impact their chances, leading to shifts in the market’s probabilities.