TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Science and Technology
2026 February 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
polymarket

2026 February 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Volume:
$482,651

4th or lower

 - Polymarket

4th or lower - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Closed: Mar 9, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4th or lower

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$113,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2nd hottest

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$86,855
$212,683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st hottest

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$110,707
$57,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3rd hottest

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$98,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record. Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.