TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?
polymarket

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?

Volume:
$7,997

Claude by Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Claude by Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Claude by Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Сириус

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Instants, an Instagram app

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$993
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$945
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Planet Fitness

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$927
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Threads

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

App A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

App I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for which app will rank as the #2 free application on the US Apple App Store on June 12. It displays current implied probabilities for each outcome candidate, 24-hour trading volume of $5,365, and cumulative group volume of $7,997 across all positions. The interface shows price movements over time, allowing traders to monitor shifting sentiment about which app will claim the second-place position. This event focuses specifically on the official US App Store rankings as of the specified date.

Prediction market odds reflect real-time trader sentiment and capital allocation, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on historical app store trends, download velocity, and marketing spend projections. Markets often incorporate breaking news—app updates, viral campaigns, or competitive launches—faster than traditional analyst reports. For the #2 Free App outcome, market prices may diverge from analyst predictions when unexpected events shift user behavior or when traders identify information gaps. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether consensus favors established trends or emerging signals about app performance.

The market resolves on Jun 13, 2026, after the US Apple App Store rankings are finalized for June 12. The outcome is determined by identifying which application officially occupies the #2 position in the free apps category on that date. Resolution relies on the authoritative App Store ranking snapshot taken at the specified time. Once the ranking is confirmed, the corresponding outcome resolves to yes, and all other outcomes resolve to no. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout based on final market odds.

Major catalysts include new app launches or major updates from competitors, viral social media campaigns, celebrity endorsements, or press coverage that drives downloads. Seasonal trends, app store algorithm changes, and pricing shifts (free-to-play conversions or promotional pricing) can significantly impact rankings. Marketing spend by app developers, integration with trending platforms or features, and user retention metrics all influence the #2 position. Additionally, changes in user behavior patterns, iOS updates affecting app discovery, or competitive app removals could reshape the ranking landscape. Real-time download data and app store charts serve as leading indicators for traders monitoring this outcome.