TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 21?
polymarket

#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 21?

Volume:
$9,754

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 3:25 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,020
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$530
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 2, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 2, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the probabilities associated with different AI labs holding the second-largest market share within the OpenRouter ecosystem the week of September 21. Currently, the dashboard displays the implied probability of each outcome, along with the 24-hour volume traded, which is currently $543. The total volume for this market is $9,754. Users can view the price history and observe how the market's sentiment evolves as new information becomes available. This provides a real-time view of predictions regarding the competitive landscape of AI labs.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. For this market, the current implied probability on Polymarket reflects what traders believe about the likelihood of various AI labs achieving the second-highest OpenRouter market share. If analysts predict a different outcome than what's priced into this market, it could indicate disagreement on the factors driving AI adoption or the relative strengths of different AI labs. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, access to information, or biases among analysts and market participants.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure will raise the price, indicating growing confidence in that outcome, while increased selling pressure will lower the price. This creates a constantly updated forecast of the OpenRouter AI market share.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on determining which AI lab holds the second-largest market share on OpenRouter during the week of September 21, as measured by OpenRouter's official data. The market will settle based on this verified data, reflecting the actual distribution of usage across different AI models within the OpenRouter platform. Traders should monitor OpenRouter’s announcements for official data releases related to market share.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new model releases, partnerships, or performance benchmarks could shift trader sentiment. Changes in OpenRouter’s platform features or pricing structure could also influence AI model usage and, therefore, market share. Unexpected news regarding the capabilities or limitations of specific AI models, or shifts in developer preference towards certain labs, could also drive price movements in this market. Any substantial news flow related to the competitive landscape of AI development is likely to affect trading activity.