TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

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62%

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#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
polymarket

#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?

Oct 12, 2026, 2:01 AM EST - Oct 20, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$8,298
Volume 24h:
$1,184
40%
Liquidity:
$2,580
3%
Open interest:
$2,269N/A

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 20, 2026

Time left: 05d:11h:17m

Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?

64%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 67¢ buys you 149 shares | Odds: 64% Total Payout: $149 | Net Profit: $49 Multiplier: 1.49x | ROI: 49% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
64%
3%
Yes 67¢No 40¢
7¢
$41
$2,821
38%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
32%
4%
Yes 41¢No 74¢
15¢
$569
$2,542
9%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.9¢
1.9¢
$114
$365
77%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.9¢
1.8¢
$149
$380
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$72
$449
5%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$212
$154
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$214
$257
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$235
$224
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Qwen

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$214
$370
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

xAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$217
$298
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$269
$231
0.49%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$274
$207
0.5%
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 17m
active
Total markets: 12

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the probabilities of different AI labs holding the second-largest market share within the OpenRouter ecosystem the week of October 12. Currently, you can view the odds for each potential outcome, examine the price history of this market, and see the 24-hour trading volume. The total volume traded on Polymarket is $1,184, indicating the level of interest in predicting the future landscape of AI model access. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets regarding the competitive dynamics of AI labs.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for the OpenRouter AI market share. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments of AI lab performance and potential, this market offers a quantitative, real-time assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence. If polls or expert opinions indicated a strong belief in a particular AI lab’s future market share, we might expect to see corresponding movement in the odds on Polymarket. However, discrepancies could arise due to differing methodologies or information access.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest probability, is Will Xiaomi have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? with a chance percentage of 63.5%. The 24-hour volume of $1,184 demonstrates active trading and price discovery within this market.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported market share data from OpenRouter for the week of October 12, specifically identifying which AI lab holds the second-largest share. The data used for resolution will be publicly available and independently verifiable, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor OpenRouter’s official announcements for the definitive market share report.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new model releases, partnerships, or technological breakthroughs could shift perceptions of their market potential. Changes in OpenRouter’s platform policies or user adoption rates could also influence market share dynamics. Unexpected news regarding the performance or reliability of specific AI models could also cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Monitoring industry news, OpenRouter updates, and sentiment analysis will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.