TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of August 31?
polymarket

#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of August 31?

Volume:
$12,064

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 7, 5:33 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,835
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$439
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the current odds of different outcomes for which AI lab will hold the second-largest market share by the week of August 31. You can view the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour volume directly on the Polymarket interface. Currently, the total volume for this market is $12,064, with $7,408 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to the competitive landscape of AI labs.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect what traders believe about the relative likelihood of each AI lab capturing the second-largest market share. These predictions are often formed by aggregating information from various sources, including analyst reports, news articles, and expert opinions. It’s important to note that prediction market prices represent a different kind of forecast than those produced by traditional analysts – they are based on actual money at stake, and thus may offer a unique perspective on the potential outcome of this market. Comparing these odds to external forecasts can reveal areas of agreement or disagreement.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which AI lab holds the second-largest market share as measured by OpenRouter data for the week ending August 31. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will reflect the market share held by each AI lab at that specific time. The outcome will be determined by the data reported by OpenRouter and verified against credible public sources.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new model releases, partnerships, or funding rounds could shift investor sentiment. Changes in the overall AI landscape, such as regulatory developments or shifts in user adoption, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected performance benchmarks or comparisons between different AI models could also move the market. Furthermore, any news related to the competitive positioning of these labs, or OpenRouter’s methodology for calculating market share, could lead to price fluctuations in this market.