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10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?

Volume:
$22,363

5.17% or above

 - Kalshi

5.17% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 25, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.17% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,881
N/A
N/A
$757
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.15% or above

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,659
N/A
N/A
$1,107
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.13% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,683
N/A
N/A
$690
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.03% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$959
N/A
N/A
$787
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.11% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$950
N/A
N/A
$494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.05% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$775
N/A
N/A
$755
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.09% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$603
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.91% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$395
N/A
N/A
$390
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.89% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$377
N/A
N/A
$377
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.85% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
$373
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.81% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$372
N/A
N/A
$372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.83% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$372
N/A
N/A
$372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.87% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$372
N/A
N/A
$372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.97% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$330
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.95% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$116
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.93% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.07% or above

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.01% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.99% or above

View
100%
82%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.21% or above

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,103
N/A
N/A
$618
Settled
No
kalshi

5.19% or above

View
0%
67%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,963
N/A
N/A
$1,228
Settled
No
kalshi

5.27% or above

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,115
N/A
N/A
$560
Settled
No
kalshi

5.23% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$720
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
No
kalshi

5.25% or above

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$559
N/A
N/A
$306
Settled
No
kalshi

5.29% or above

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$357
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting different threshold levels for a specific date. Each market assesses whether the yield surpasses a particular percentage mark, offering varied perspectives on future interest rate expectations. The outcomes reflect diverse scenarios of economic conditions influencing long-term government bond rates.

Kalshi

These markets collectively evaluate whether the par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury exceeds specified percentage thresholds on September 25, 2026. Each individual market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.81% to 5.09%. If the published yield for that date meets or exceeds the threshold defined for a specific market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All markets share a common expiration timeline: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for September 25, 2026, or one week after September 25, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on various potential yield levels, with each threshold representing a distinct predictive outcome for future interest rate movements.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, displaying the implied probabilities for the yield being above or below specific levels on September 25, 2026. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the market has priced in different possibilities over time. You can also see the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $14,036, and the total volume traded to date, which is $22,363. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding future interest rates.

Currently, it's important to note that traditional analyst forecasts for the 10Y Treasury yield in September 2026 vary considerably. Some institutions predict a moderate increase, while others anticipate a decline or stagnation. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those derived from surveys of economists or financial institutions, as traders may incorporate different information or prioritize different factors in their assessments.

This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and used to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders will be able to see the final yield and the resulting payouts shortly after the resolution date. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly influence this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and unexpected shifts in economic growth are all major catalysts. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions can also play a role. Stronger-than-expected economic data could push yields higher, while signs of a recession could lead to a decline. Any news that alters expectations about the future path of monetary policy will likely cause volatility in this market.